FTPOnline Needs A Shrink
So in typical magazine prerelease style, ftponline.com posted an article a while back dated July 14, 2005: The Incredible Shrinking Programmer.
I've had some time to think about the contents of this article, and while most of it is platitudes and blather, there is a microspeck of . . . something in there, and that microspeck was probably intended to start a flame session, since it was a guest op, after all. In fact, you could probably start ten different discussions on this, but to match the style of the article, I'll respond with my own de-focused vagaries. 'Cause I'm in that mood.
[Here's the link to the article. You have to register on the ftponline.com site to see the last couple of paragraphs. (You just know their database is flooded with junk data. But whatever, the advertiser's are buyin' it, so load the junk up. Like we all don't know about spamgourmet.com.)]
Okay, now for my own platitudes and blather. The article mentioned above boils down, at least to me, to the following: (a) Outsoucing is goin' on + (b) automated code generation diminishes programmer value = (c) programmers must adapt or face unemployment. <sigh>
(a) Yes, outsourcing is going on. For some businesses it is working okay, and some businesses are finding out that (1) outsourcing projects requires substantial internal overhead, management, and communication, (2) outsourcing companies are starting to require serious $$$ contracts, or else you get the rookie programmers, and (3) for outsourcing to work at all, the business-side of the house has to have detailed documented knowledge of exactly what they want, and (3a) be willing to wait for it. Finally, (4) the businesses have to have someone knowledgeable to review the code submitted, because there are QA issues.
Most businesses vastly underestimate #1, and absorb soft costs. Many businesses are starting to run into #2; even the mid-size outsourcing companies really don't want to take a contract for less than $1 million, and if they do, you're getting the rookies. Number 3 and 3a is the real issue for most American businesses. They can't articulate the end product six months out. Business management has become accustomed to quick turnaround on last-minute changes that drastically affect project scope. It's like a drug. And in my humble opinion, I don't see them giving that away without serious consideration.
Here's a tip: Most businesses that are successful at outsourcing software development set up their own offices in India/Russia/wherever. And they only send projects over there that have been fully documented over here.
One last point on outsourcing is this: IT Management is a hard job to get right. Managing business requests, the vortex of shifting priorities, measuring cost-benefits, justifying projects, dealing with reams of regulations and paperwork, not to mention managing groups of self-centered passive-aggressive people with hyperinflated egos (hey! I know those people!) . . . that stuff is dang hard to do. Not every business is good at it. If they all were, there wouldn't be statistics like: 'Over 35% of all 'large' IT projects fail.' Now add to the difficulty remotely managing a large project.... That's why a significant percentage (I WISH I could get this number) of outsourced projects fail. They might not fail in the sense that massive systems explode and go offline. But there are cost overruns. Missed deadlines, and more missed deadlines. Then the CIO has a quite conversation with the CEO and CFO about modding the numbers to make it look not so bad, and then taking those lessons learned and making the next outsourcing project a "prototype."
I know, I know, tens of thousands of jobs have gone overseas, and good software developers have been affected. I'm not saying that outsourcing is not a real concern. I'm just holding on to my belief that if you're very good at what you do, you will be able to find work. Hopefully in a decent environment.
(b) Going to save this for a future post. It's a good one. He's not entirely wrong. Just mostly wrong.
(c) I've been hearing this for years --- it's so much a part of this occupation that I don't even think about it anymore. When employers pay for my services, they pay for my experience and also my ability to quickly assimilate whatever I need to know.
Okay, so that's the exhalation for today. Comment and tell me how you feel about the "shrinking programmer."